Tuesday, November 8, 2016

election day poll analysis

11/8/16
NYT
As it is election day, the homepage is slathered with stories about the election. 3 stories on the homepage are about the polls:
“When Polls Close, and When We’ll Know Who Won” by Anjali Singhvi and Jugal K. Patel
More than half of electoral votes will be in by 8 p.m. and the last in-person voting will be in by 1 a.m. in Alaska.
“Early Voting Reshapes Campaign” by Jeremy W. Peters
By today, more than 43 million Americans have already voted, a new record.
“Fear Drives Polling Station Observers” by Johnathon Mahler and Michael Wines
More than 100 organizations nationwide are going “incognito” to watch out for voter intimidation and fraud.
Poll: Clinton – 45.9% and Trump: 42.8%
RCP
Electoral map and poll averages are still in the same places on the homepage
All the news stories are about the election, what may happen, etc.: first 5-
 Stanage & Easley, The Hill

 Ron Brownstein, The Atlantic

 Shelby Steele, Wall Street Journal

 Joan Vennochi, Boston Globe

 Laura Ingraham, LifeZette

RCP poll average: Clinton 46.8% and Trump: 43.6%
Electoral college map: Clinton 203 and Trump 164, toss ups: 171

ABC News
Of course, there are tons of stories about the election on the homepage, but none about the polls.
Stories include:
“You have to vite” Clinton makes final plea to supporters” by J.J. Gallagher and Liz Kreutz
“Trump Calls on Working Class to ‘Strike Back’ in Final Day of Campaigning” by Candace Smith and John Santucci
There’s also a nifty article towards the bottom of the page detailing key points during both campaigns.
There is a presidential results map that refreshes every 30 seconds and will show the results as they come in tonight.

Five Thirty Eight

Most news stories are covering the election including some of the first articles on the homepage including:
“Final Election Update: There’s a Wide Range of Outcomes, and Most of them Come Up Clinton” by Nate Silver, this basically says that Clinton has a high chance of winning.
“An Hour-by Hour Guide to Election Night” by Harry Enten, This explains the time deadliens for each state and how many votes each candidate needs for each state.
“How to Follow Today’s House Results Like a Pro” by David Wasserman. This describes how Republicans control the House of Representatives and what happens if they win and lose.
The election forecast is still in the upper right-hand corner of the homepage.

Hilary: 71.4% and Trump: 28.6% 

Thursday, November 3, 2016

poll analysis Nov. 3

11/3/2016
The New York times doesn’t have any leading news stories on the polls or elections. There are stories underneath the election category on the homepage regarding Trump’s tax fraud. The news today is mostly focused on the Cubs’ winning.
However, there is now an election forecast bar about 1/3 of the way down the homepage on the right hand side. It reads: Clinton has an 86 percent chance of winning. This forecast includes ‘where the race has shifted,’ ‘state-by-state estimates,’ ‘how other forecasts compare,’ ‘which outcomes are most likely’ and ‘1,024 paths to the white house.’ The only methodology is a hyperlink saying that the forecast was created using the latest state and national polls, the link brings you to the NYT election poll, which could then be assumed that the methodology is the same.
NYT Poll states- Clinton: 45.7 percent and Trump: 42.6 percent
Polling data from Huffington Post Pollster API
Real Clear Politics
Leading news stories do not mention the polls, but consist of:
 Salena Zito, NY Post

 Katha Pollitt, The Nation

 Katelyn Crist, The Federalist

 Andrew Rosenthal, New York Times

 Victor Davis Hanson, IBD

 E.J. Dionne, Washington Post

Election averages are still listed in the top right-hand corner of the homepage and electoral map is still in the middle of the page.
RCP Poll: Clinton: 47 and Trump: 45.3
ABC News
ABC does have a leading news storieso on the polls under top stories at the top right hand corner of the homepage: the second story is “The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election.” According to the article, these states will comprise 184 electoral votes, “more than enough to swing the election to either Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump.” Continues to list the latest polls that meet abc news standards beneath of each state. The name of the polls and methodology are not available.
ABC News/ Abc News Washington Post poll:
Clinton: 46% and Trump: 45%
“Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation, and while vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, a first since May.”
Conducted by landline and cellphones in English and Spanish
Random national sampling of 1,128 likely voters.
Sampling error: 3 points, including the design effect
Oct. 27-30
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Specific questions are not given.
Five Thirty Eight
Polls are not leading the news, news stories covering the elction include:
“The Perfect Presidential Stump Speech” by Barton Swaim and Jeff Nussbaum
“Election Update: The-How-Full-Is-This-Glass Election” by Nate Silver

Election forecast still in the upper right-hand corner. Hilary: 66.1% and Trump: 33.9%

Saturday, October 29, 2016

10/29/16

10/29/16

New York Times

NYT doesn’t have news stories about polls on their websites, stories about election are mostly focused on investigation into Clinton emails.

Polls are shown on the homepage of the website, “Where the race has shifted” Clinton has a 91% of wincing presidency.

Clinton campaign advisors are asking F.B.I. to not draw new attention to the scandal, as it might draw voters away from her.

A man smashed Donald Trump’s Hollywood star with a sledgehammer over the weekend.
NYT National Polling Average: Clinton – 46% and Trump – 40%.
Real Clear Politics
Poll results are listed at the top right of the homepage as always.
Leading news stories are not about polls, just about scandals of both candidates:
 Alexis Simendinger, RealClearPolitics

 Larry Kudlow, Investor's Biz Daily

 Eli Lake, Bloomberg

 John Kass, Chicago Tribune

 Dana Milbank, Washington Post

Newt Gingrich, FOX News

Jamelle Bouie, Slate

Electoral map and poll average histogram are still in the middle of the page.
Polls: Clinton at 47.1% and Trump at 42.5%

ABC news

Home page has a “Shift in the Electorate’s Make-Up Tightens the Presidential Contest (Poll)” … “From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.

Changes are not necessarily caused by a shift in who people are voting for, but people who are intending to vote, according to the article.


Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Q5-6 were asked Oct. 25-27 among 956 likely voters; those results have a 3.5-point error margin.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

Questions asked are not listed, or how interviewees are selected.

ABC electoral map: Clinton has 307, Trump has 180, 51 undecided electoral votes

Five Thirty Eight

Election forecast in the top right corner, as always.

Headline news on homepage: Election Update: The F.B.I. is Back – This Time with Anthony Weiner” by Nate Silver
“The emails apparently came from electronic devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be something done out of an “abundance of caution.” But in a political sense, there’s certainly some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words “FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.”

Uses the word “tightening” to explain electoral polls, just like ABC News.

“Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage points in our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17. And Trump’s chances of winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent. Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.”


Forecast/ Chance of winning: Clinton: 80.6% and Trump: 19.3%

Thursday, October 13, 2016

10/13/16 poll analysis

NYT
Polls are not leading the news, and polls are not shown on the homepage.
The leading election news is about Trump’s allegations towards sexualizing women.
Polls –
Clinton: 45%, has an 89% chance of winning presidency.
Trump 40%
The usual information is listed below the polls including histograms, state polling averages and the option to see a four-way poll.
All of the seven deadly sins are used correctly and can be found under the NYT methodology.

Real Clear Politics
A chart including RCP’s polling average, the electoral college and updated battleground averages are listed in the upper right hand corner of the website.
Clinton is up 6.2 percentage points according to the RCP average.
Towards the middle of the home page, the charts for the national RCP poll average and RCP electoral college map are present, showing Clinton at 48% and Trump at 41.8%.
The polls are not leading the news on RCP, the leading news stories include “Trump Cult of Personality Was on Full Display in Pa.” by Michael Cohen, Boston Globe, “It’s Trump vs. Clinton and Bush in 2016” by Charles Hurt, Washington Times, and “The Final Weeks of Clinton Crimes” by Mark Leibovich, NYT Mag.

ABC News
Leading news stories regarding election: “Trump Calls Sexual Assault Allegations ‘Vicious Claims, Outright Lies’” and “Clinton’s Relationship with Banks Detailed in Purportedly hacked Emails”.
Polls are not leading the news.
ABC is still the only news organization out of the four that I have chosen to cover Hurricane Matthew or other worldly news other than the scandal of an election.
All of the seven deadly sins are followed correctly and can be found in the methodology of the polls.
The poll shows Clinton with 272 estimated electoral votes and Trump with 197.

Five Thirty Eight
The election forecast map is shown on the top right-hand corner of the homepage.
A single lead story is about the polls on this site, “Election Update: Post-Debate Polls Show Trump Still in Big Trouble” by Nate Silver. All other leading news stories are not about the polls.
The election forecast has Clinton at 87% and Trump at 13%. This seems a little skewed compared to the above mentioned numbers; however, FiveThirtyEight uses a strange “forecast” of polling, so this isn’t surprising.

I follow Cohn’s advice because I always start with the topline results, although neither has come very close to 50%. Hilary has kept the lead, but still is quite a way away from 50%. I need to start looking at whether the polls are using registered or likely voters. Everything else mentioned I’ve mostly looked at by researching the methodology of each poll.


Professionally, I could adopt the Wall Street Journal policy because it incorporates good advice for any journalist: write short stories using concise language that are newsworthy. Personally, I could adopt the policy because change in a newsroom is what keeps it sharp and up-to-date. Our world and our news are ever evolving and that means that we should continue to improve as well.

Monday, October 10, 2016

Oct 10 electoral poll critique

10/10/16
New York Times
The polls are not leading news coverage this week as the second presidential debate was Sunday 10/9/16. Most all of the election coverage is centered on the debate and the absurd things Trump has said. A very small article weighed in on the difference of Trump’s sexist remarks and the fact that a woman is running for president.
“What we saw in the second debate”
Polls -                  Clinton: 45%           Trump: 40%

Headliner: “Paul Ryan Won’t Defend Donald Trump, Upsetting Trump and G.O.P. Hard-Liners” by Alexander Burns and Johnathon Martin

Same information on standards.

Real Clear Politics

Polls are still a sidebar on the far right hand side, at the very top of the page.

Electoral map still in the middle of the page.

Polls are not leading news coverage.

The second debate is and most of the articles are about Trump, his nasty comments, and how he has turned the election to a war on gender. Also many articles on the release of the “Trump tape”

http://www.weeklystandard.com/is-trump-a-sufferable-evil/article/2004796

“Is Trump a sufferable evil?” by William Kristol, “The Standard Weekly”

http://time.com/4523900/donald-trump-gender/?xid=homepage

How Donald Trump Turned 2016 Into a Referendum on Gender”

Charlotte Alter, “Time”

A few articles are on Trump’s comment to jail Clinton

http://www.nationalreview.com/article/440917/donald-trump-special-prosecutor-hillary-clinton-debate

“The Obama Justice Department’s ‘investigation’ of Hillary Clinton was the real banana-republic event.” By Andrew McCarthy “National Review”

 

ABC news


Polls are not leading the news. Although headliners are about the debate

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/president-trump-fulfill-big-debate-promise/story?id=42700606&cid=clicksource_4380645_1_hero_headlines_bsq_hed

“If Elected, Trump May Not Be Able to Fulfill Big Debate Promise” by Mike Levine and Jack Date

This is the first news site out of my selected 4 that has covered something on Hurricane Mathew. Although, most of the news stories are about celebrities, and more on the entertainment side, it is very odd that the hurricane hasn’t had much coverage considering the amount of destruction it has caused.

Poll: 272 Clinton 197 Trump

Five Thirty-Eight

Updated election forecast map to the right hand top side of the website

Articles are not led by the polls, but are led by the debate.

Mostly sports stories other than that.

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-second-debate-probably-didnt-help-trump-and-he-needed-help/

“The Second Debate Probably Didn’t Help Trump, And He Needed Help” by Nate Silver

http://fivethirtyeight.com/features/paul-ryan-needs-trump-more-than-trump-needs-ryan/

“Paul Ryan Needs Trump More Than Trump Needs Ryan” by Harry Enton


Most of the news organizations I chose, this week, all covered the same things: the debate, “Trump tape”, Paul Ryan’s statement, etc. Only ABC news had coverage about Hurricane Mathew on their homepage.  

Monday, October 3, 2016

10/3/16 Poll Research

10/3/16
New York Times
Polls are not leading news on main website.
National polling average- Clinton: 44% Trump: 41%
Clinton has a 77% chance of winning.
All the same information as last week as far as polls, seven deadly sins and graphs.
“Donald Trump Opens New Line of Attack on Hillary Clinton: Her Marriage” this article covers a can of worms Trump is opening for Clinton, although the polls aren’t really mentioned.

“Hillary Clinton’s Positive Message? That Was the Plan, at Least” briefly mentions the polls, but mostly describes her new campaign strategy.
Real Clear Politics
Polls are shown on homepage. No longer electoral map, but an overview of numbers shown in the same place. Electoral map is just lower on the homepage now, Clinton in the lead.
List of articles found on homepage, of course, going over everything from recent debate and of Clinton asking Trump to release his tax documents.
“The Hypocrisy of Hilary’s Tax Attack” The New York Post, Seth Lipsky
“Donald Trump, American Oligarch” The New Yorker, Jane Mayer
Posting stories from other news outlets, all mostly about both candidates racking mud upon each other.
ABC News
“Hillary Clinton Pulls Ahead of Donald Trump After First Debate, Poll Shows”
Lead story, Ryan Struyk, discusses polls passed on recent debate.
Polls are not shown on homepage
Polls are the same as last week, Clinton in the lead, an electoral map infographic followed by a list of related articles.
Handling the polls well, but mostly concerned with the recent debate and what the candidates are doing to each other in the meantime.
Five Thirty Eight
Leading article: “Election Update: How Big is Hilary Clinton’s Lead?”
Election forecast on homepage also.: Clinton 71.8% Trump: 28.2%

Interactive graphics and information explaining forecast. I still have a problem with the “forecast” and not an actual poll creating their data. 

Sunday, September 25, 2016

9/25/16 poll critique

I have finally settled on four news organizations to study and they are NYT, ABC News, Real Clear Politics and Five Thirty Eight.

The New York Times is endorsing Clinton; they have endorsed the Democratic Party for the last 56 years. Their homepage was filled with stories on the election, but not necessarily about the polls. Their poll results were not on their homepage either.

“Hilary Clinton for President” by Chang W. Lee and supported by the editorial board was a very biased article.
We’re aiming instead to persuade those of you who are hesitating to vote for Mrs. Clinton — because you are reluctant to vote for a Democrat, or for another Clinton, or for a candidate who might appear, on the surface, not to offer change from an establishment that seems indifferent and a political system that seems broken.

Real Clear Politics listed their polls on their homepage. They list national polls from many different news organizations. Although, the rules behind their own polling is not clear. They also list articles from different news organizations stating different viewpoints. They are not endorsing any particular party.

ABC News’ polls are associated with the Washington Post. All of the seven sins were clearly listed under their methodology except for when the polls were taken.
http://www.langerresearch.com/wp-content/uploads/1178a12016Election.pdf

Their front page was focused on the presidential debates, and not the polls. They seem to be leaning democratic.

Five Thirty Eight had their poll on the homepage and one article related to the polls on the same home page. Other articles were about the presidential election, but not the polls.

Their “poll” isn’t much of a poll, it’s more of a forecasts based off of numbers of previous statistics and not current voters.