Thursday, November 3, 2016

poll analysis Nov. 3

11/3/2016
The New York times doesn’t have any leading news stories on the polls or elections. There are stories underneath the election category on the homepage regarding Trump’s tax fraud. The news today is mostly focused on the Cubs’ winning.
However, there is now an election forecast bar about 1/3 of the way down the homepage on the right hand side. It reads: Clinton has an 86 percent chance of winning. This forecast includes ‘where the race has shifted,’ ‘state-by-state estimates,’ ‘how other forecasts compare,’ ‘which outcomes are most likely’ and ‘1,024 paths to the white house.’ The only methodology is a hyperlink saying that the forecast was created using the latest state and national polls, the link brings you to the NYT election poll, which could then be assumed that the methodology is the same.
NYT Poll states- Clinton: 45.7 percent and Trump: 42.6 percent
Polling data from Huffington Post Pollster API
Real Clear Politics
Leading news stories do not mention the polls, but consist of:
 Salena Zito, NY Post

 Katha Pollitt, The Nation

 Katelyn Crist, The Federalist

 Andrew Rosenthal, New York Times

 Victor Davis Hanson, IBD

 E.J. Dionne, Washington Post

Election averages are still listed in the top right-hand corner of the homepage and electoral map is still in the middle of the page.
RCP Poll: Clinton: 47 and Trump: 45.3
ABC News
ABC does have a leading news storieso on the polls under top stories at the top right hand corner of the homepage: the second story is “The Final 15: The Latest Polls in the Swing States That Will Decide the Election.” According to the article, these states will comprise 184 electoral votes, “more than enough to swing the election to either Hilary Clinton or Donald Trump.” Continues to list the latest polls that meet abc news standards beneath of each state. The name of the polls and methodology are not available.
ABC News/ Abc News Washington Post poll:
Clinton: 46% and Trump: 45%
“Strong enthusiasm for Hillary Clinton has ebbed since the renewal of the FBI’s email investigation, and while vote preferences have held essentially steady, she’s now a slim point behind Donald Trump in the latest ABC News/Washington Post tracking poll, a first since May.”
Conducted by landline and cellphones in English and Spanish
Random national sampling of 1,128 likely voters.
Sampling error: 3 points, including the design effect
Oct. 27-30
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Specific questions are not given.
Five Thirty Eight
Polls are not leading the news, news stories covering the elction include:
“The Perfect Presidential Stump Speech” by Barton Swaim and Jeff Nussbaum
“Election Update: The-How-Full-Is-This-Glass Election” by Nate Silver

Election forecast still in the upper right-hand corner. Hilary: 66.1% and Trump: 33.9%

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