Saturday, October 29, 2016

10/29/16

10/29/16

New York Times

NYT doesn’t have news stories about polls on their websites, stories about election are mostly focused on investigation into Clinton emails.

Polls are shown on the homepage of the website, “Where the race has shifted” Clinton has a 91% of wincing presidency.

Clinton campaign advisors are asking F.B.I. to not draw new attention to the scandal, as it might draw voters away from her.

A man smashed Donald Trump’s Hollywood star with a sledgehammer over the weekend.
NYT National Polling Average: Clinton – 46% and Trump – 40%.
Real Clear Politics
Poll results are listed at the top right of the homepage as always.
Leading news stories are not about polls, just about scandals of both candidates:
 Alexis Simendinger, RealClearPolitics

 Larry Kudlow, Investor's Biz Daily

 Eli Lake, Bloomberg

 John Kass, Chicago Tribune

 Dana Milbank, Washington Post

Newt Gingrich, FOX News

Jamelle Bouie, Slate

Electoral map and poll average histogram are still in the middle of the page.
Polls: Clinton at 47.1% and Trump at 42.5%

ABC news

Home page has a “Shift in the Electorate’s Make-Up Tightens the Presidential Contest (Poll)” … “From a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.

Changes are not necessarily caused by a shift in who people are voting for, but people who are intending to vote, according to the article.


Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent, Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Q5-6 were asked Oct. 25-27 among 956 likely voters; those results have a 3.5-point error margin.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.

Questions asked are not listed, or how interviewees are selected.

ABC electoral map: Clinton has 307, Trump has 180, 51 undecided electoral votes

Five Thirty Eight

Election forecast in the top right corner, as always.

Headline news on homepage: Election Update: The F.B.I. is Back – This Time with Anthony Weiner” by Nate Silver
“The emails apparently came from electronic devices belonging to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be something done out of an “abundance of caution.” But in a political sense, there’s certainly some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words “FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.”

Uses the word “tightening” to explain electoral polls, just like ABC News.

“Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage points in our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17. And Trump’s chances of winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent. Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.”


Forecast/ Chance of winning: Clinton: 80.6% and Trump: 19.3%

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