10/29/16
New York Times
NYT doesn’t have news stories about polls on their
websites, stories about election are mostly focused on investigation into
Clinton emails.
Polls are shown on the homepage of the website, “Where
the race has shifted” Clinton has a 91% of wincing presidency.
Clinton campaign advisors are asking F.B.I. to not
draw new attention to the scandal, as it might draw voters away from her.
A man smashed Donald Trump’s Hollywood star with a
sledgehammer over the weekend.
NYT National Polling Average: Clinton – 46% and Trump –
40%.
Real Clear Politics
Poll results are listed at the top right of the
homepage as always.
Leading news stories are not about polls, just about
scandals of both candidates:
Alexis Simendinger,
RealClearPolitics
Larry Kudlow, Investor's Biz
Daily
Eli Lake, Bloomberg
John Kass, Chicago Tribune
Dana Milbank, Washington Post
Newt Gingrich, FOX News
Jamelle Bouie, Slate
Electoral map and poll average
histogram are still in the middle of the page.
Polls: Clinton at 47.1% and Trump at
42.5%
ABC news
Home page has a “Shift in the Electorate’s
Make-Up Tightens the Presidential Contest (Poll)” … “From
a 50-38 percent Clinton lead over Donald Trump in the
tracking poll’s first four days, Oct. 20-23, it’s a 47-45 percent contest in
the latest results. The movement has been in Trump’s favor, +7, while the -3 in
Clinton’s support is not significant, given the sample size.”
Changes are not necessarily caused by a shift in who people
are voting for, but people who are intending to vote, according to the article.
Methodology
This ABC News/Washington Post poll was conducted by landline and
cellular telephone Oct. 24-27, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random
national sample of 1,148 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of
3 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 37-29-29 percent,
Democrats-Republicans-independents.
Q5-6 were asked Oct. 25-27 among 956
likely voters; those results have a 3.5-point error margin.
The survey was produced for ABC News by Langer Research Associates of New York, N.Y., with sampling, data
collection and tabulation by Abt-SRBI of New York, N.Y.
Questions asked are not listed, or how interviewees are
selected.
ABC electoral map: Clinton has 307, Trump has 180, 51
undecided electoral votes
Five Thirty Eight
Election forecast in the top right corner, as always.
Headline news on homepage: Election Update: The F.B.I. is
Back – This Time with Anthony Weiner” by Nate Silver
“The emails apparently
came from electronic devices belonging
to Anthony Weiner, the former congressman, and his wife, Huma Abedin, an aide
to Clinton, and surfaced as part of an investigation into lewd text
messages that Weiner sent to underage women. It isn’t clear that the
emails directly implicate Clinton, and the reporting I’ve followed so far
suggests that in a legal sense, Comey’s decision to inform Congress may be
something done out of an “abundance of
caution.” But in a political sense, there’s certainly
some downside for Clinton in the appearance of headlines containing the words
“FBI,” “investigation” and “email” just 11 days before the election.”
Uses the word “tightening” to explain electoral polls, just
like ABC News.
“Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump is now 5.7 percentage
points in
our polls-only model, down from 7.1 points on Oct. 17. And Trump’s chances of
winning the election have recovered to 18 percent from a low of 12 percent.
Trump’s chances in our polls-plus forecast are 21 percent, improved from a low of 15 percent.”
Forecast/ Chance of winning: Clinton: 80.6% and Trump: 19.3%
